guest: michelle obama was in the state last week in cincinnati on the first-ever early voting with 6800 supporters. she said i want you all to follow the staff across the street to the hamilton county board of elections office and vote now. this is critical for both sides to try to get as many of these votes as possible. on senate bill 5, 61% of ohioans, that means republicans and independents -- excuse me, democrats and independents voted to repeal senate bill 5. 68% of ohioans voted to repeal obamacare. independents are critical. they judged things as best they can. if they want to send a message, they will. but in the same election cycle they are sending a message to president obama and federal health care while also telling john kasich, the republican, but he went too far on collective bargaining. guest: bush won in 2004. obama won with 52% at. no strategist will tell you this will be anything more than 51% or 52%, so ohioans did not believe that recent poll. host: what was wrong? guest: when you poll before independence in ohio begin to make definitive conclusions, it is just awful